Good article in the NYT on Intrade, a prediction market. I've been fascinated by prediction markets for a few years now and have often logged into Intrade to see how the market reacts to certain news. The article points out the flaw that there is a lack of liquidity, especially in certain events that have low volume. But as people profit on this, the inefficiencies get wrung out and the market will better reflect the underlying value, in these cases the probability that the event happens. The Obama-wins-Democratic-nomination contract is currently trading at 75. Should have bought it earlier!
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